If anyone had suggested in 2014 that BJP under Narendra Modi can actually lose Gujarat state elections in 2017, immediate family members and friends would have looked anxiously at the person and gently suggested some counselling. In fact such a suggestion might even have drawn roars of laughter for its preposterous humour. The interesting thing is that it is the Congressmen who would have laughed loudest. In fact this might have sounded like someone suggesting in May 1983 that Kapil Dev's India can actually beat Clive Lloyd's West Indies and lift the Word Cup.
But this is December 2017, and Gujarat goes to the polls to vote in the first phase of the 2 phase polls tomorrow. Even now nobody dares to suggest something as outrageous as BJP under Modi-Shah combine actually losing to a Congress led by newly elevated president Rahul Gandhi. But now, in December 2017, if this is suggested, there are not that many laughs, and a few people actually have that look that says "well ....surely it can't happen ... but ...hmmm ..maybe they will win ..but close ..yeah ..possible but who knows...but surely Modi can't lose Gujarat, and that too to Rahul Gandhi ". This sums up the entire scenario. Irrespective of what happens in this election, that such a possibility is not totally dismissed by itself explains why Modi-Shah are anxious...no, they are more than anxious, they are worried, and seriously worried. Two things indicate their extreme worry, their facial expressions while addressing rallies, and the foolish bravado of 150-160 seats that they claim they will win. The face and the eyes don't match the words. They know they are in trouble, and this bravado betrays their desperate hope of blustering their way out of a hole, which admittedly they have dug for themselves.
The key to analysing the electoral trend for 2017 Gujarat, and making hazardous predictions is to understand the progression from 2002, 2007, 2012, till now. Obviously 2012 will be the key as that was the last occasion when Gujarat voted for a state government. I'm not considering the 2014 Lok Sabha polls as any major indicator, as everyone and his uncle wanted to vote for BJP and Narendra Modi as PM, but even 2014 is 3 1/2 years behind. The key is the movement of the popular vote in Gujarat from 2007 till now. In 2007 BJP, with Modi as the sitting CM, having been CM for 5 years ( post the 2002 Godhra Gujarat riots and elections ), secured 64% vote share for the BJP and the Congress got 32%. It was a non contest as anyone will tell you, but the fact remains Congress secured 32% or 1 out of every 3 votes in an election where Modi and BJP were nearly at their peak political high. If even in those times Congress got 1/3rd of the vote, one can assume its rock bottom level is that. Its this number that we have to keep as the basis of all analysis here on. The Congress got 59 seats, approximately 1/3rd of the 182 member assembly even in its worst possible performance. BJP got 117 and Congress 59 seats in 2007, and in 2012 BJP got 115 seats and Congress 61 seats, a shift of 2 seats towards Congress, but the key factor is the BJP's vote share in 2012 had slipped to 48% from 64% and the Congress vote share had increased to 39% from 32%. The gap in vote share had reduced from 32% in 2007 to just 9% in 2012, but this was not taken note of in a bigger way as the seat difference wasn't much (just a 2 seat gain for Congress). Later on, we are going to see how important this vote share gap could mean.
Analysing the 2012 Gujarat Elections
Now on to 2012, let's see what the numbers actually tell us. While projecting and predicting voter behavior and the results from that we can expect tomorrow is an essential part of psephology, and could turn out right or wrong, it's dependant a great deal on what had happened in the past. Thats the reference point from where the present and the future can be understood. And that's the reason why 2012 holds the key to understanding what could possibly happen in 2017. Now, what was the situation in 2012 when BJP faced the Gujarat polls under Narendra Modi ?
* BJP and Narendra Modi were at a political peak in Gujarat.
* Modi was the sitting CM and contesting as a clear CM candidate himself
* Congress had been in power at the centre from 2004, and in 2012 the corruption scandals against Congress/UPA Govt were daily headlines, like 2G , Coalgate etc, and were facing massive public backlash in view of the same.
* Narendra Modi was projected as a possible PM candidate for the next Lok Sabha polls in 2014, when Gujarat went for Assembly polls in December 2012.
* A strong showing in the Gujarat Assembly polls was expected to boost and strengthen Narendra Modi's PM chances in 2014 and the election agenda itself was scripted around this theme.
* Keshubhai Patel, that veteran BJP strongman and former CM of Gujarat had split from the BJP and floated his own Gujarat Parivartan party and contested 165 assembly seats in 2012.
And it was in this scenario that the Congress in Gujarat took on the sitting BJP state govt under Narendra Modi. One would normally expect the Congress to slip further and the BJP to gain even more, compared to 2007. But most surprisingly the BJP lost 16% vote share from 2007 and the Congress gained 7% from their 2007 vote share. The vote share difference came down from 64%-32% ( 32%) to 48%-39% (9%), a whopping reduction of 23% in the popular vote difference compared to 2007.
With Narendra Modi as sitting Chief Minister and as the CM candidate and also as a possible PM candidate , and with Congress/UPA at its lowest, still the voting share shifted in favor of Congress from the earlier state election in 2007. Despite all the favourable factors the BJP had, it still lost 16% vote share from 2007. Even in this scenario, the BJP-Congress gap was just 9% in 2012 election , compared to 32% in 2007.
So what do the actual raw numbers of the 2012 Gujarat elections say ? It's very interesting. The BJP won 115 Assembly seats and captured power again, lost 2 from its 2007 tally of 117. The Congress increased its tally from 59 to 61 seats, and it's electoral ally NCP won 2 seats, making the alliance win 63 seats. The Keshubhai Patel Gujarat Parivartan Party, fighting against Narendra Modi and BJP as rebels, secured 10 lakh votes across 165 seats and actually won 2 assembly seats. This 10 lakh votes was 3.6% of the vote share.
Here are the actual vote numbers in 2012 :
Total votes polled in all 182 Gujarat assembly seats : 2.71 crores
BJP : 1.31 crores votes (48%)
Congress 1.06 crore votes (39%)
NCP (Congress ally): 2.7 lakh votes (1%)
Gujarat Parivartan party ( BJP rebel Keshubhai Patel ) 10 lakh votes (3.6%)
Absolute vote difference between Congress and BJP = 24.5 Lakh votes. ( The actual difference between Congress +NCP and BJP is 21.8 lakh votes)
Effective difference between BJP and Congress alliance = 8.07%
The seats position in 2012 is as follows.
BJP: 115/182 seats
Congress: 61/182 seats
NCP(Cong alliance): 2/182 seats
GPP (Keshubhai Patel) : 2/182 seats
How BJP won its 115 seats in 2012 and by what margins is the most critical factor here that holds the key to any kind of guesswork or estimate we can venture into for 2017.
Margin wise breakdown of the 115 seats won by BJP
0-3000 votes: 7 seats
3000-6000 votes: 13 seats
6000-10,000 votes: 11 seats
10,000-15,000 votes: 9 seats
15,000-20,000 votes: 21 seats
20,000-30,000 votes: 13 seats
Now is the most important statistic of the 2012 elections. The seats won by BJP by more than 30,000 vote margin.
30,000-40,000 vote margin: BJP had won 15 seats in this band, and the sum of the victory margins in these 15 seats adds up to 5 lakh votes.
40,000-50,000 vote margin: 7 seats with the sum of the victory margins in these 7 seats adds up to 2.93 lakh votes.
Above 50,000 vote margin: 19 seats with the sum of the victory margins in these 19 seats adding up to 12.47 Lakh votes.
This is the key statistic : The BJP had won 41 of its 115 seats by huge margins, the total of the victory margins in these 41 seats is 20.4 lakh votes . If we see a little earlier in this article, we would see that the total vote difference between the BJP and the Congress alliance was 21.8 lakh votes in 2012 , in all 182 seats put together. So effectively, of this 21.8 lakh votes, 20.4 lakh votes are highly concentrated only among the 41 seats won by the BJP. This means that the effective difference between BJP and Congress in the remaining 141 seats ( of the total 182) is just 1.4 lakh votes.
There is not a shadow of doubt that BJP will retain these 41 seats that it had won in 2012 with margins above 30,000. Perhaps the margins may be a bit reduced in these seats, but the BJP is 100% sure to retain all these seats. So the real analysis has to be among the 141 remaining seats.
I want to point out here that in this very same blog I had written an article in September 2016, analysing what could possibly happen in the US Presidential elections, Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump. While almost the entire US media and the world media and opinion polls were projecting a big Hillary win based on opinion polls that consistently showed Hillary with a 3-5% minimum lead in the national popular vote, I had estimated the Election a little differently. Hillary had enjoyed big vote margins in the 3 heavily democratic and populous states of New York, California and Illinois. She was absolutely sure to carry all these 3 states, hence I gave it to her and analysed only the remaining 47 states. In these states the margins between Republicans and Democrats were extremely lower, with the Republicans winning several of these states. In other words, the popular vote of the Republicans was better spread out to enable them to win more states. Hence , using this model (along with a few other voting factors) , I had projected a massive Trump win. And against all the opinion polls, Trump did win in a landslide and captured the White House.
https://harisampath.blogspot.in/2016/09/us-elections-2016.html?m=1
I think there are many similarities between the US Presidential elections of 2016 and the Gujarat Election of 2017. Obama was a powerful candidate in 2008 and won the election in a landslide. He was a powerful orator. He was seen as a successful President who again won in 2012, by a very slightly reduced margin, but this was the beginning point of Hillary's defeat in 2016. As Obama won comfortably in 2012, not many people noticed the reduced vote share in several states. In 2016, the Democrats had been in the White House for 8 years, and suddenly there was no Obama as candidate, but Hillary Clinton, who is no Obama by any stretch. So many Obama voters either turned away to Republicans or just didn't vote. Even Obama campaigning heavily for Hillary made no difference, as the people knew they were not going to get Obama for President. Here in Gujarat now, Modi who was a very successful CM and now PM, is also a powerful orator and had won 3 elections in Gujarat. He is campaigning heavily for the BJP, but Gujarat voters know they are not getting Modi for the CM, and the BJP has been having their vote share gradually reduced over the past 2 elections, even with Modi at the helm. And added to that is the anti incumbency, and hence the challenger Congress is very well placed to pull off a major upset.
Let's get back to the numbers. We have seen how the real battle is in the 141 seats where BJP just enjoyed a lead of 1.4 lakh votes in 2012. Of these 141 seats, the Congress plus NCP won 61+2 seats respectively in 2012. The NCP got a vote share of 1% which was 2.5 lakh votes, but this was essentially the Congress vote. Now the NCP is contesting alone, but won't get as many votes as it has zero possibility of winning.
My major premise for analysing the 63 seats won by the Congress alliance in 2012 is as follows : A Congress vote in 2012 is going to stay a Congress vote in 2017. This is because, if with Modi as sitting CM, himself as the CM candidate, with Congress/UPA facing heavy anti incumbency at the centre in 2012, as well as major corruption charges, if a voter had still voted for the Congress in Gujarat 2012 elections, there is no reason for that voter to switch his vote to BJP now, especially with no Modi as CM candidate and also in the current situation in Gujarat. This is a staunch anti Modi vote and shall remain so, hence I am assuming with reasonable confidence that Congress will retain all the 63 seats it won in 2012.
So this leaves us the remaining 141-63= 78 seats, which in reality is going to determine which way this 2017 election would go. If you see above in this article (vote margins of seats that BJP won in 2012), 40 seats were won by BJP with vote margins less than 15,000 votes.
0-3000 votes: 7 seats
3000-6000 votes: 13 seats
6000-10,000 votes: 11 seats
10,000-15,000 votes: 9 seats
These are the very vulnerable seats for BJP and how many of these the Congress can capture is going to determine their final tally. All it takes is just one out of ten BJP voters of 2012 to shift their vote to Congress in these 40 seats. The BJP got between 50,000 to 70,000 votes in most of these 40 seats and 1 out of 10 BJP votes shifting from BJP to Congress effectively means that 5000 to 7000 votes get reduced for BJP and 5000-7000 votes increase for the Congress. This will effectively wipe out all the 40 seats for the BJP. Even 1 out of 20 BJP voters shifting their vote to Congress, will wipe out 20 of these 40 seats for the BJP. Hence I am concluding that at the very least, with just this one factor alone, not even considering anything else (and there are plenty more factors to consider), the Congress will get a minimum of 83-103 seats range.
Other factors:
Gujarat is largely a trading and manufacturing state. Gujarat was one of the hardest hit states by demonetization, and large sections of the trading community haven't recovered still from the impact of DeMo. A lot is said about Gujrati Asmita, Gujarati pride and a Gujarati Narendra Modi being the PM. And it's true to a large extent as well. But however much the Gujaratis love Narendra Modi, they love money more. Rich or poor, rural or urban, across caste and religion, Gujaratis are fundamentally businessmen by nature and even those who don't actually do business share this trait. It's a well known fact and the fastest way to become unpopular with a Gujarati is to take his money away from him. Gujaratis are a cash centric community and the textile and jewellery business was equally hit by the effect of DeMo. GST has added to the discontent of traders and businessmen, and even in urban strongholds of the BJP, palpable discontent can be seen. More importantly the farmers were hit hard by DeMo and lost an entire crop. It's this section that's going to hit the BJP very hard in the 98 rural seats of Gujarat. Congress is already stronger than BJP in the rural areas of Gujarat which I shall visit after this, but on the limited point of DeMo alone there is certainly an impact on rural Gujarat. It's certainly going to dent the vote bank of the BJP and to what extent it does, we will know on results day.
6% New voters
Almost 24 lakh first time voters have been added this time. Generally new voters and first time voters tend to be inclined towards change. They like to be anti establishment, and BJP brand of shrill Hindutva is not likely to strike a chord with them. Even the new vote splitting evenly in urban areas is bound to hit the BJP hard. A strong indication is that ABVP, the students wing of the BJP, lost the Gujarat University union elections, something unthinkable some years back.
Rural vs Urban Gujarat
Voter turnout
This is going to be an interesting factor in this election. In 2012, the voter turnout was around 71%, but fell to 65% in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. I expect the voting turnout to be at same levels numerically as the 2012 polls, 70% or thereabouts. But I have a deeper view of this than the mere numbers. For many elections now, BJP voters had been high enthusiasm voters and hence they turn out in large numbers. The BJP also has a better get-out-the-vote mechanism than the Congress, the last mile connectivity. One thing about the Congress vote is that it always loses a few percent voters who don't think it's worth coming out and voting. The BJP had been so dominant and the Congress so uninspiring in Gujarat, that a section of Congress voters had given up in the Modi era. There was not a ghost of a chance to beat BJP and hence they stayed home. But this is the first election in 15 years that the Congress voters actually think the BJP can be beaten. That's going to bring the sleeping Congress vote to the polling booths. There is hope for them. And on the other hand, there is a section of disenchanted BJP voters, hit hard by DeMo, GST, and also no Modi as CM, but they can't bring themselves to vote for the Congress, hence may stay home. They just may not have that levels of voting enthusiasm as they did in earlier elections. I think this could well mean a reduction of 2-3% of the BJP vote and an increase in 2-3% in the Congress vote, purely the enthusiasm or lack of, factor in the turnout. So a numerical figure of 70% turnout could well mean something different for both parties. And if this is lower than that, again it's the BJP which has greater cause for worry.
In conclusion, after looking at all the numbers, the indicators and the prevailing social, economic and political triggers, one thing is certain. This is like a case of the Cheetah chasing a Thomson's Gazelle. The Congress is the Cheetah, and senses a kill, has done its homework, crept up slowly on the BJP, the Gazelle, had gathered all the necessary resources like the Patidar leaders, Dalit leaders, OBC leaders, and has timed its spring. Like any hunt, anything can happen. The Gazelle is no slouch and in fact does outrun the Cheetah many times, it's fleetfooted. It could be touch and go for the Gazelle and it may well barely escape by the skin of its tail, maybe hurt a little bit. But for Rahul Gandhi and the Congress, even being the Cheetah and hunting the Gazelle is a win of sorts.
Even if the BJP manages to squeak through to a narrow win, the Congress would be defeated but not disgraced electorally and morally and politically the victory would certainly belong to the Congress in giving Modi, Shah and the BJP a bad fright in their own den. If the Congress manages a win, a narrow one by even 2-3 seats, they would be happy and over the moon. Just consider this fact. The Congress is so protective of its first family that if it thought it will be beaten badly in the Gujarat polls, the last thing they will do is to elevate Rahul Gandhi as its president now, of all times. I strongly feel that the Congress has ground level feedback that tells them strongly that they can beat the BJP or in a worst case scenario run them very close. This is precisely why they have timed the elevation of Rahul Gandhi as president in the middle of the Gujarat Election process, so that they can claim victory for Rahul Gandhi.
What I personally think is as follows: Although just a guess based on facts, numbers, trends , political situation etc, and instinct, I do not think this is going to be a close election. I think that almost all opinion pollsters have got it wrong.
This election will be a comfortable win for the Congress in the end. I have reason to believe that the Congress will cross 105 seats in Gujarat, possibly more, and a landslide win too cannot be ruled out.
Did I say at the beginning that saying Congress will beat the BJP in Gujarat is like saying in May 1983 that Kapil Dev's India can beat Clive Lloyd's West Indies and lift the World cup ? Well, we all know what happened :-)
Hari Sampath
But this is December 2017, and Gujarat goes to the polls to vote in the first phase of the 2 phase polls tomorrow. Even now nobody dares to suggest something as outrageous as BJP under Modi-Shah combine actually losing to a Congress led by newly elevated president Rahul Gandhi. But now, in December 2017, if this is suggested, there are not that many laughs, and a few people actually have that look that says "well ....surely it can't happen ... but ...hmmm ..maybe they will win ..but close ..yeah ..possible but who knows...but surely Modi can't lose Gujarat, and that too to Rahul Gandhi ". This sums up the entire scenario. Irrespective of what happens in this election, that such a possibility is not totally dismissed by itself explains why Modi-Shah are anxious...no, they are more than anxious, they are worried, and seriously worried. Two things indicate their extreme worry, their facial expressions while addressing rallies, and the foolish bravado of 150-160 seats that they claim they will win. The face and the eyes don't match the words. They know they are in trouble, and this bravado betrays their desperate hope of blustering their way out of a hole, which admittedly they have dug for themselves.
The key to analysing the electoral trend for 2017 Gujarat, and making hazardous predictions is to understand the progression from 2002, 2007, 2012, till now. Obviously 2012 will be the key as that was the last occasion when Gujarat voted for a state government. I'm not considering the 2014 Lok Sabha polls as any major indicator, as everyone and his uncle wanted to vote for BJP and Narendra Modi as PM, but even 2014 is 3 1/2 years behind. The key is the movement of the popular vote in Gujarat from 2007 till now. In 2007 BJP, with Modi as the sitting CM, having been CM for 5 years ( post the 2002 Godhra Gujarat riots and elections ), secured 64% vote share for the BJP and the Congress got 32%. It was a non contest as anyone will tell you, but the fact remains Congress secured 32% or 1 out of every 3 votes in an election where Modi and BJP were nearly at their peak political high. If even in those times Congress got 1/3rd of the vote, one can assume its rock bottom level is that. Its this number that we have to keep as the basis of all analysis here on. The Congress got 59 seats, approximately 1/3rd of the 182 member assembly even in its worst possible performance. BJP got 117 and Congress 59 seats in 2007, and in 2012 BJP got 115 seats and Congress 61 seats, a shift of 2 seats towards Congress, but the key factor is the BJP's vote share in 2012 had slipped to 48% from 64% and the Congress vote share had increased to 39% from 32%. The gap in vote share had reduced from 32% in 2007 to just 9% in 2012, but this was not taken note of in a bigger way as the seat difference wasn't much (just a 2 seat gain for Congress). Later on, we are going to see how important this vote share gap could mean.
Analysing the 2012 Gujarat Elections
Now on to 2012, let's see what the numbers actually tell us. While projecting and predicting voter behavior and the results from that we can expect tomorrow is an essential part of psephology, and could turn out right or wrong, it's dependant a great deal on what had happened in the past. Thats the reference point from where the present and the future can be understood. And that's the reason why 2012 holds the key to understanding what could possibly happen in 2017. Now, what was the situation in 2012 when BJP faced the Gujarat polls under Narendra Modi ?
* BJP and Narendra Modi were at a political peak in Gujarat.
* Modi was the sitting CM and contesting as a clear CM candidate himself
* Congress had been in power at the centre from 2004, and in 2012 the corruption scandals against Congress/UPA Govt were daily headlines, like 2G , Coalgate etc, and were facing massive public backlash in view of the same.
* Narendra Modi was projected as a possible PM candidate for the next Lok Sabha polls in 2014, when Gujarat went for Assembly polls in December 2012.
* A strong showing in the Gujarat Assembly polls was expected to boost and strengthen Narendra Modi's PM chances in 2014 and the election agenda itself was scripted around this theme.
* Keshubhai Patel, that veteran BJP strongman and former CM of Gujarat had split from the BJP and floated his own Gujarat Parivartan party and contested 165 assembly seats in 2012.
And it was in this scenario that the Congress in Gujarat took on the sitting BJP state govt under Narendra Modi. One would normally expect the Congress to slip further and the BJP to gain even more, compared to 2007. But most surprisingly the BJP lost 16% vote share from 2007 and the Congress gained 7% from their 2007 vote share. The vote share difference came down from 64%-32% ( 32%) to 48%-39% (9%), a whopping reduction of 23% in the popular vote difference compared to 2007.
With Narendra Modi as sitting Chief Minister and as the CM candidate and also as a possible PM candidate , and with Congress/UPA at its lowest, still the voting share shifted in favor of Congress from the earlier state election in 2007. Despite all the favourable factors the BJP had, it still lost 16% vote share from 2007. Even in this scenario, the BJP-Congress gap was just 9% in 2012 election , compared to 32% in 2007.
So what do the actual raw numbers of the 2012 Gujarat elections say ? It's very interesting. The BJP won 115 Assembly seats and captured power again, lost 2 from its 2007 tally of 117. The Congress increased its tally from 59 to 61 seats, and it's electoral ally NCP won 2 seats, making the alliance win 63 seats. The Keshubhai Patel Gujarat Parivartan Party, fighting against Narendra Modi and BJP as rebels, secured 10 lakh votes across 165 seats and actually won 2 assembly seats. This 10 lakh votes was 3.6% of the vote share.
Here are the actual vote numbers in 2012 :
Total votes polled in all 182 Gujarat assembly seats : 2.71 crores
BJP : 1.31 crores votes (48%)
Congress 1.06 crore votes (39%)
NCP (Congress ally): 2.7 lakh votes (1%)
Gujarat Parivartan party ( BJP rebel Keshubhai Patel ) 10 lakh votes (3.6%)
Absolute vote difference between Congress and BJP = 24.5 Lakh votes. ( The actual difference between Congress +NCP and BJP is 21.8 lakh votes)
Effective difference between BJP and Congress alliance = 8.07%
The seats position in 2012 is as follows.
BJP: 115/182 seats
Congress: 61/182 seats
NCP(Cong alliance): 2/182 seats
GPP (Keshubhai Patel) : 2/182 seats
How BJP won its 115 seats in 2012 and by what margins is the most critical factor here that holds the key to any kind of guesswork or estimate we can venture into for 2017.
Margin wise breakdown of the 115 seats won by BJP
0-3000 votes: 7 seats
3000-6000 votes: 13 seats
6000-10,000 votes: 11 seats
10,000-15,000 votes: 9 seats
15,000-20,000 votes: 21 seats
20,000-30,000 votes: 13 seats
Now is the most important statistic of the 2012 elections. The seats won by BJP by more than 30,000 vote margin.
30,000-40,000 vote margin: BJP had won 15 seats in this band, and the sum of the victory margins in these 15 seats adds up to 5 lakh votes.
40,000-50,000 vote margin: 7 seats with the sum of the victory margins in these 7 seats adds up to 2.93 lakh votes.
Above 50,000 vote margin: 19 seats with the sum of the victory margins in these 19 seats adding up to 12.47 Lakh votes.
This is the key statistic : The BJP had won 41 of its 115 seats by huge margins, the total of the victory margins in these 41 seats is 20.4 lakh votes . If we see a little earlier in this article, we would see that the total vote difference between the BJP and the Congress alliance was 21.8 lakh votes in 2012 , in all 182 seats put together. So effectively, of this 21.8 lakh votes, 20.4 lakh votes are highly concentrated only among the 41 seats won by the BJP. This means that the effective difference between BJP and Congress in the remaining 141 seats ( of the total 182) is just 1.4 lakh votes.
There is not a shadow of doubt that BJP will retain these 41 seats that it had won in 2012 with margins above 30,000. Perhaps the margins may be a bit reduced in these seats, but the BJP is 100% sure to retain all these seats. So the real analysis has to be among the 141 remaining seats.
I want to point out here that in this very same blog I had written an article in September 2016, analysing what could possibly happen in the US Presidential elections, Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump. While almost the entire US media and the world media and opinion polls were projecting a big Hillary win based on opinion polls that consistently showed Hillary with a 3-5% minimum lead in the national popular vote, I had estimated the Election a little differently. Hillary had enjoyed big vote margins in the 3 heavily democratic and populous states of New York, California and Illinois. She was absolutely sure to carry all these 3 states, hence I gave it to her and analysed only the remaining 47 states. In these states the margins between Republicans and Democrats were extremely lower, with the Republicans winning several of these states. In other words, the popular vote of the Republicans was better spread out to enable them to win more states. Hence , using this model (along with a few other voting factors) , I had projected a massive Trump win. And against all the opinion polls, Trump did win in a landslide and captured the White House.
https://harisampath.blogspot.in/2016/09/us-elections-2016.html?m=1
I think there are many similarities between the US Presidential elections of 2016 and the Gujarat Election of 2017. Obama was a powerful candidate in 2008 and won the election in a landslide. He was a powerful orator. He was seen as a successful President who again won in 2012, by a very slightly reduced margin, but this was the beginning point of Hillary's defeat in 2016. As Obama won comfortably in 2012, not many people noticed the reduced vote share in several states. In 2016, the Democrats had been in the White House for 8 years, and suddenly there was no Obama as candidate, but Hillary Clinton, who is no Obama by any stretch. So many Obama voters either turned away to Republicans or just didn't vote. Even Obama campaigning heavily for Hillary made no difference, as the people knew they were not going to get Obama for President. Here in Gujarat now, Modi who was a very successful CM and now PM, is also a powerful orator and had won 3 elections in Gujarat. He is campaigning heavily for the BJP, but Gujarat voters know they are not getting Modi for the CM, and the BJP has been having their vote share gradually reduced over the past 2 elections, even with Modi at the helm. And added to that is the anti incumbency, and hence the challenger Congress is very well placed to pull off a major upset.
Let's get back to the numbers. We have seen how the real battle is in the 141 seats where BJP just enjoyed a lead of 1.4 lakh votes in 2012. Of these 141 seats, the Congress plus NCP won 61+2 seats respectively in 2012. The NCP got a vote share of 1% which was 2.5 lakh votes, but this was essentially the Congress vote. Now the NCP is contesting alone, but won't get as many votes as it has zero possibility of winning.
My major premise for analysing the 63 seats won by the Congress alliance in 2012 is as follows : A Congress vote in 2012 is going to stay a Congress vote in 2017. This is because, if with Modi as sitting CM, himself as the CM candidate, with Congress/UPA facing heavy anti incumbency at the centre in 2012, as well as major corruption charges, if a voter had still voted for the Congress in Gujarat 2012 elections, there is no reason for that voter to switch his vote to BJP now, especially with no Modi as CM candidate and also in the current situation in Gujarat. This is a staunch anti Modi vote and shall remain so, hence I am assuming with reasonable confidence that Congress will retain all the 63 seats it won in 2012.
So this leaves us the remaining 141-63= 78 seats, which in reality is going to determine which way this 2017 election would go. If you see above in this article (vote margins of seats that BJP won in 2012), 40 seats were won by BJP with vote margins less than 15,000 votes.
0-3000 votes: 7 seats
3000-6000 votes: 13 seats
6000-10,000 votes: 11 seats
10,000-15,000 votes: 9 seats
These are the very vulnerable seats for BJP and how many of these the Congress can capture is going to determine their final tally. All it takes is just one out of ten BJP voters of 2012 to shift their vote to Congress in these 40 seats. The BJP got between 50,000 to 70,000 votes in most of these 40 seats and 1 out of 10 BJP votes shifting from BJP to Congress effectively means that 5000 to 7000 votes get reduced for BJP and 5000-7000 votes increase for the Congress. This will effectively wipe out all the 40 seats for the BJP. Even 1 out of 20 BJP voters shifting their vote to Congress, will wipe out 20 of these 40 seats for the BJP. Hence I am concluding that at the very least, with just this one factor alone, not even considering anything else (and there are plenty more factors to consider), the Congress will get a minimum of 83-103 seats range.
Other factors:
The Patidar movement, Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakur and Jignesh Mevani, the HAJ factor:
Hardik Patel may well emerge as the man of the elections for Congress. The patidars comprise about 15% of the voting population in Gujarat. But the Patels have long been loyal voters of the BJP, till it changed recently. Not all Patels vote identically. The Leuva Patels are economically well off and traditionally vote BJP. It's the Kadava Patels who are not that well off economically as well as educationally. It's this section of the Kadava Patels who have turned very badly against the BJP government and Hardik Patel has been organising a massive anti BJP movement for the past 2 years, demanding that the Patels be included in the OBCs for a 10% quota in reservations. Hardik Patel gained a massive following in 2015, mostly the youth, and he was jailed for 10 months under sedition charges. 14 Patel youth were shot and killed in police firing during the Patidar movement. Hardik Patel has addressed 260 rallies in Gujarat, mostly in the 70 seats where Patels are a decisive factor. Lakhs of people turn up for his rallies and roadshows. The BJP released a "sex CD" of Hardik Patel supposedly and tried to discredit him, showing they were panicking, but that increased his popularity and the youth started seeing the BJP as "sleaze politicians". With anything between 10,000-70,000 votes in more than 70 seats, the Patel votes and the Hardik Patel factor is sure to help the Congress as Hardik Patel has announced his total support for Congress to oust the BJP. The anger of the Patidar community is certainly going to hurt the BJP significantly in this election.
Alpesh Thakor, is a very popular OBC Kshatriya leader who has a big influence among his community voters. The OBC Kshatriyas comprise 22% of the electorate and have been traditional supporters of the Congress. Alpesh has joined the Congress and is contesting on a Congress ticket. This is bound to consolidate the OBC Kshatriyas vote even more behind the Congress. This could have decisive impact in most parts of North and Central Gujarat.
Jignesh Mevani , another young leader from the Dalit community has been leading big movements against the BJP. There had been a huge wave of anger against the BJP govt when 4 dalits were flogged by so called "cow protectors". Dalits have a 8% share of the total vote and in significant numbers in North and Central Gujarat. Jignesh himself is contesting as an Independent candidate with Congress support and in combination with the Alpesh Thakor vote, can cause serious damage to the BJP in North and Central Gujarat.
Keshubhai Patel factor
This is a very significant factor in this election although Keshubhai Patel himself is not in active politics now. The former CM and BJP strongman is a major force in Gujarat, especially among the Patel community. He broke away from the BJP in 2012, rebelling against Modi, and formed the Gujarat Parivartan Party, contesting 165 seats. He won 2 seats, but polled 10 lakh votes, ranging from 2000 to 30,000 votes in many constituencies. Later, after the election, the GPP was dissolved and merged with the BJP. But this section of the BJP voters, especially Patels, had shown even in 2012 that they were willing to vote against Modi. It's this section of the Patel vote that Hardik Patel has been gathering around him. Keshubhai Patel even supported Hardik Patel and the Patidar movement against the BJP in 2015. Hence it's quite certain that the Keshubhai Patel vote which is 10 lakhs will vote against the BJP now, and the Congress will gain that. 10 lakh votes that Keshubhai got in 2015 is more than 3.5% of the total vote and could decisively swing the election in favor of Congress.
GST and demonetization
Hardik Patel may well emerge as the man of the elections for Congress. The patidars comprise about 15% of the voting population in Gujarat. But the Patels have long been loyal voters of the BJP, till it changed recently. Not all Patels vote identically. The Leuva Patels are economically well off and traditionally vote BJP. It's the Kadava Patels who are not that well off economically as well as educationally. It's this section of the Kadava Patels who have turned very badly against the BJP government and Hardik Patel has been organising a massive anti BJP movement for the past 2 years, demanding that the Patels be included in the OBCs for a 10% quota in reservations. Hardik Patel gained a massive following in 2015, mostly the youth, and he was jailed for 10 months under sedition charges. 14 Patel youth were shot and killed in police firing during the Patidar movement. Hardik Patel has addressed 260 rallies in Gujarat, mostly in the 70 seats where Patels are a decisive factor. Lakhs of people turn up for his rallies and roadshows. The BJP released a "sex CD" of Hardik Patel supposedly and tried to discredit him, showing they were panicking, but that increased his popularity and the youth started seeing the BJP as "sleaze politicians". With anything between 10,000-70,000 votes in more than 70 seats, the Patel votes and the Hardik Patel factor is sure to help the Congress as Hardik Patel has announced his total support for Congress to oust the BJP. The anger of the Patidar community is certainly going to hurt the BJP significantly in this election.
Alpesh Thakor, is a very popular OBC Kshatriya leader who has a big influence among his community voters. The OBC Kshatriyas comprise 22% of the electorate and have been traditional supporters of the Congress. Alpesh has joined the Congress and is contesting on a Congress ticket. This is bound to consolidate the OBC Kshatriyas vote even more behind the Congress. This could have decisive impact in most parts of North and Central Gujarat.
Jignesh Mevani , another young leader from the Dalit community has been leading big movements against the BJP. There had been a huge wave of anger against the BJP govt when 4 dalits were flogged by so called "cow protectors". Dalits have a 8% share of the total vote and in significant numbers in North and Central Gujarat. Jignesh himself is contesting as an Independent candidate with Congress support and in combination with the Alpesh Thakor vote, can cause serious damage to the BJP in North and Central Gujarat.
Keshubhai Patel factor
This is a very significant factor in this election although Keshubhai Patel himself is not in active politics now. The former CM and BJP strongman is a major force in Gujarat, especially among the Patel community. He broke away from the BJP in 2012, rebelling against Modi, and formed the Gujarat Parivartan Party, contesting 165 seats. He won 2 seats, but polled 10 lakh votes, ranging from 2000 to 30,000 votes in many constituencies. Later, after the election, the GPP was dissolved and merged with the BJP. But this section of the BJP voters, especially Patels, had shown even in 2012 that they were willing to vote against Modi. It's this section of the Patel vote that Hardik Patel has been gathering around him. Keshubhai Patel even supported Hardik Patel and the Patidar movement against the BJP in 2015. Hence it's quite certain that the Keshubhai Patel vote which is 10 lakhs will vote against the BJP now, and the Congress will gain that. 10 lakh votes that Keshubhai got in 2015 is more than 3.5% of the total vote and could decisively swing the election in favor of Congress.
GST and demonetization
Gujarat is largely a trading and manufacturing state. Gujarat was one of the hardest hit states by demonetization, and large sections of the trading community haven't recovered still from the impact of DeMo. A lot is said about Gujrati Asmita, Gujarati pride and a Gujarati Narendra Modi being the PM. And it's true to a large extent as well. But however much the Gujaratis love Narendra Modi, they love money more. Rich or poor, rural or urban, across caste and religion, Gujaratis are fundamentally businessmen by nature and even those who don't actually do business share this trait. It's a well known fact and the fastest way to become unpopular with a Gujarati is to take his money away from him. Gujaratis are a cash centric community and the textile and jewellery business was equally hit by the effect of DeMo. GST has added to the discontent of traders and businessmen, and even in urban strongholds of the BJP, palpable discontent can be seen. More importantly the farmers were hit hard by DeMo and lost an entire crop. It's this section that's going to hit the BJP very hard in the 98 rural seats of Gujarat. Congress is already stronger than BJP in the rural areas of Gujarat which I shall visit after this, but on the limited point of DeMo alone there is certainly an impact on rural Gujarat. It's certainly going to dent the vote bank of the BJP and to what extent it does, we will know on results day.
6% New voters
Almost 24 lakh first time voters have been added this time. Generally new voters and first time voters tend to be inclined towards change. They like to be anti establishment, and BJP brand of shrill Hindutva is not likely to strike a chord with them. Even the new vote splitting evenly in urban areas is bound to hit the BJP hard. A strong indication is that ABVP, the students wing of the BJP, lost the Gujarat University union elections, something unthinkable some years back.
Rural vs Urban Gujarat
What many opinion pollsters have not factored in is there are 2 Gujarats. 98 seats are rural and 84 seats are urban and semi urban. BJP had been winning Gujarat always because it gains more than 90% of the urban seats and also gets almost half of the rural seats. But not anymore. In the 2015 local body polls in Gujarat, the Congress grabbed 134 out of 230 Taluk Panchayats and 24 out of 31 District Panchayats and gained in a very big way in all the rural areas. The elections were after the Patidar and Hardik Patel movement started, and even in urban municipal corporations the BJP won with largely reduced margins. This clearly indicates a trend. And as DeMo happened after this, it can only mean worse news for the BJP in the 98 rural seats. The Congress stands poised to make major inroads into the rural seats and also cause significant damage in the 84 urban seats. Almost 60% of the BJP vote share in the whole state is from urban seats, with big concentrations as we saw earlier in this article. This could mean a further reduction in terms of seats for the BJP.
Voter turnout
This is going to be an interesting factor in this election. In 2012, the voter turnout was around 71%, but fell to 65% in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. I expect the voting turnout to be at same levels numerically as the 2012 polls, 70% or thereabouts. But I have a deeper view of this than the mere numbers. For many elections now, BJP voters had been high enthusiasm voters and hence they turn out in large numbers. The BJP also has a better get-out-the-vote mechanism than the Congress, the last mile connectivity. One thing about the Congress vote is that it always loses a few percent voters who don't think it's worth coming out and voting. The BJP had been so dominant and the Congress so uninspiring in Gujarat, that a section of Congress voters had given up in the Modi era. There was not a ghost of a chance to beat BJP and hence they stayed home. But this is the first election in 15 years that the Congress voters actually think the BJP can be beaten. That's going to bring the sleeping Congress vote to the polling booths. There is hope for them. And on the other hand, there is a section of disenchanted BJP voters, hit hard by DeMo, GST, and also no Modi as CM, but they can't bring themselves to vote for the Congress, hence may stay home. They just may not have that levels of voting enthusiasm as they did in earlier elections. I think this could well mean a reduction of 2-3% of the BJP vote and an increase in 2-3% in the Congress vote, purely the enthusiasm or lack of, factor in the turnout. So a numerical figure of 70% turnout could well mean something different for both parties. And if this is lower than that, again it's the BJP which has greater cause for worry.
In conclusion, after looking at all the numbers, the indicators and the prevailing social, economic and political triggers, one thing is certain. This is like a case of the Cheetah chasing a Thomson's Gazelle. The Congress is the Cheetah, and senses a kill, has done its homework, crept up slowly on the BJP, the Gazelle, had gathered all the necessary resources like the Patidar leaders, Dalit leaders, OBC leaders, and has timed its spring. Like any hunt, anything can happen. The Gazelle is no slouch and in fact does outrun the Cheetah many times, it's fleetfooted. It could be touch and go for the Gazelle and it may well barely escape by the skin of its tail, maybe hurt a little bit. But for Rahul Gandhi and the Congress, even being the Cheetah and hunting the Gazelle is a win of sorts.
Even if the BJP manages to squeak through to a narrow win, the Congress would be defeated but not disgraced electorally and morally and politically the victory would certainly belong to the Congress in giving Modi, Shah and the BJP a bad fright in their own den. If the Congress manages a win, a narrow one by even 2-3 seats, they would be happy and over the moon. Just consider this fact. The Congress is so protective of its first family that if it thought it will be beaten badly in the Gujarat polls, the last thing they will do is to elevate Rahul Gandhi as its president now, of all times. I strongly feel that the Congress has ground level feedback that tells them strongly that they can beat the BJP or in a worst case scenario run them very close. This is precisely why they have timed the elevation of Rahul Gandhi as president in the middle of the Gujarat Election process, so that they can claim victory for Rahul Gandhi.
What I personally think is as follows: Although just a guess based on facts, numbers, trends , political situation etc, and instinct, I do not think this is going to be a close election. I think that almost all opinion pollsters have got it wrong.
This election will be a comfortable win for the Congress in the end. I have reason to believe that the Congress will cross 105 seats in Gujarat, possibly more, and a landslide win too cannot be ruled out.
Did I say at the beginning that saying Congress will beat the BJP in Gujarat is like saying in May 1983 that Kapil Dev's India can beat Clive Lloyd's West Indies and lift the World cup ? Well, we all know what happened :-)
Hari Sampath
