The key to understanding how the 2020 Presidential election would go lies in understanding what really happened in the 2016 election when Trump won the Republican nomination from a wide field and beat the Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by a 306-232 electoral college vote scoreline. Almost all opinion polls , pundits and media opinion projected that Hillary Clinton would beat Trump in the general election. But earlier in this same blog, on September 28th, 2016, I had written that almost everyone was reading the national poll numbers wrong, and how there were many reasons why Hillary Clinton could actually lose the election, despite being ahead in all the national polls on popular vote. That's what happened and Donald Trump won the election on November 8th, 2016, stunning most pollsters, public , journalists and political commentators. Understanding why Trump won and why Hillary lost in 2016 is the basic foundation for understanding what might happen in 2020, next week.
Although the actual election date is on November 3rd, the election has been underway for the past 2 weeks with early voting and mail in voting. At this time more than 60-65 million voters have already voted with another 5 days to go for the poll date. This is a record breaking number and could well go beyond 90- 95 million votes cast even before Dixville Notch, New Hampshire,casts its traditional first vote at the stroke of midnight of November 3rd. The issue of mail in ballots itself has been the subject of lawsuits in various states like Texas, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin etc, with the Republicans trying to prevent or lessen the mail in votes. It's widely perceived that the mail in and early voting largely tends Democratic and a bigger share of the Republican vote would be on the day of poll, November 3rd.
The 2016 vote and how Trump won the election because of 3 rust belt states, PA, MI, WI
Trump won the 2016 election by an electoral college vote of 306-232. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in the 50 states by a margin of 3 million votes approximately, with Trump getting around 62.5 million votes and Hillary Clinton around 65.5 million votes. Yet Hillary Clinton lost to Trump largely because of the 3 states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which together gave Trump 46 electoral votes in an upset victory in what were normally considered Democratic states. Trump won all the 3 states by pretty narrow margins of 0.77% points or lesser. No one really expected Trump to win all the 3 Blue or Democratic states, but there were some reasons why he did, or rather why Hillary lost, we will come to that later as those factors are what will play a very important role in this 2020 Trump Biden face off and possibly settle the Presidential election.
Let’s take a look at the numbers in those 3 states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. It is also important to remember that Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party Candidate Jill Stein secured a substantial number of votes in these 3 states, as they did in many other battleground states.
Trump won Pennsylvania ( 20 electoral votes) by a margin of 44,000 votes , just 0.72% margin of the nearly 6 million votes cast. Gary Johnson and Jill Stein polled almost 200,000 votes together.
Trump won Michigan (16 electoral votes) by a narrow margin of 11,000 votes, just 0.23% margin of the 4.7 million votes cast. Gary Johnson and Jill Stein got 225,000 votes between themselves.
Trump won Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) by just 23,000 votes, 0.77% of the 2.8 million votes cast, with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein polling 137,000 votes between themselves.
Just a mere 78,000 votes spread across 3 states, decided the election for Trump in 3 Democratic states that were expected to go for Hillary Clinton by everyone, by giving Trump 46 electoral votes and taking his tally to 306, with 270 needed to win the White House.
Battleground states of Florida, North Carolina and Ohio
Apart from the above 3 rust belt states of PA, MI and WI, Trump won the states of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, which had all been generally swing states over past several election cycles with both Democratic and Republican Presidential candidates having won these states a few times in the past couple of decades, and typical battleground states. Florida (29 electoral votes), North Carolina (15 electoral votes), and Ohio (18 electoral votes) together contribute 62 electoral college votes, and together with the 46 electoral votes from Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, these 108 electoral votes from 6 states would in all likelihood determine the result of the Presidential election. Trump who won a total of 306 electoral votes in 2016, cannot afford to lose more than 36 electoral votes in these 6 states as that would taken his electoral votes tally to less than 270 and he would lose the election. In other words, Trump has to necessarily win at least 4 out of these 6 states just to scrape through to a narrow electoral college win.
Trump won Florida (29 electoral votes) in 2016 by 113,000 votes, a margin 1.2% of the 9.4 million votes cast in Florida. Gary Johnson and Jill Stein secured 271,000 votes between themselves.
Trump won North Carolina (15 electoral votes) in 2016 by 173,000 votes, a margin of 3.66% of the 4.7 million votes cast. Gary Johnson and Jill Stein got 142,000 votes between them.
Trump won Ohio (18 electoral votes) by 447,000 votes, a margin of 8.13% of the 5.5 million votes cast. Gary Johnson and Jill Stein got 220,000 votes between them.
Now, what do opinion polls say for all the above 6 states in 2020 ? We know that almost all opinion polls in 2016 got the final outcome of many of these states wrong and it may not be such a reliable indicator even now. It’s a far better approach to take to see what has happened since 2016 that impacts the political mood in a major way and how that may impact the outcome in these 6 states now in 2020. The question we need to be answering is :
“what’s the difference on the ground between the Trump-Hillary contest of 2016 and the Trump-Biden contest now in 2020?”
In the context of the above question, let’s take a look at what most opinion polls have been saying about a Trump Biden matchup in the past few months. On an average, Biden leads Trump in all the 6 states with the leads being anywhere between 3% to 12% in most of the polls and has consistently been holding the lead.
What is needed for Biden to win the elections decisively is just a shift of about 1% vote away from Trump and to Biden in just the 3 states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, 46 electoral votes, and Biden wins the Presidency 278-260 even if Trump carries every other state he won in 2016.
But what are all the factors that have changed from 2016 to now, that makes a far bigger shift and change in vote possible, even probable, in not just the above 3 states, but in all the 6 states , Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, let’s list and compare them between 2016 and 2020, as each factor contributes to more and more shift in vote away from Trump, and an addition to the vote of the Democrats in each state.
1. Hillary Clinton is not running against Trump, It’s Joe Biden.
Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were very disliked candidates. There was a feeling of discontent in both the Democratic and Republican parties, with their supporters feeling that the party establishment had hijacked the party and didn’t reflect the actual feelings of the respective parties. This is evident from the fact that Trump, an outsider, beat 10 establishment Republican contenders to clinch the Republican nomination. Bernie Sanders, an independent Senator running for the Democratic nomination, a liberal politician who fired up the young people and ran on purely public contributions, secured 20% of the votes, almost 15 million votes in the Democratic primaries. His supporters calling themselves “Bernie or bust” booed Hillary Clinton at the Democratic convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, for sabotaging Sanders and many of them publicly vowed to stay away from voting for the Democratic nominee Hillary or even vote for Trump.
Hillary Clinton represented the establishment, having been First Lady for 8 years, senator, and later the Secretary of State. Her candidature came after 8 years of a Democratic White House with Obama, and people wanted a change. Hillary was no Obama, had a baggage of scandals and considered dishonest. Finally she had an FBI investigation opened into the leaked emails and email server scandal just 4-5 days before the election, where she was seen to have accepted political contributions from foreign sources (when she was Secretary of State) inimical to American interests, and was seen as conflict of interest. Most importantly, African Americans voters were not much interested in supporting Hillary Clinton after 8 heady years of Obama, the first African American President. There was a drop of more than 10-15% in the African American vote for the Democrats across several states, and a majority of African Americans traditionally vote Democrats. Many Democratic voters and independents too, voted for Trump only for the reason they disliked Hillary more, and even Trump was a better option. As many said after the polls , “I held my nose and voted for Trump”
None of the above factors apply to Joe Biden now. Biden is a non controversial long time Democrat, former Vice President to Obama, is liked and trusted much more than Hillary. He has no controversy or scandal attached to himself, he has been popular with the African American community for many years, and most importantly he is the challenger now, running for change and Trump is the incumbent and the establishment. Biden has the support of the entire Democratic establishment and their voters and there are no dissent voters like Hillary did in 2016.
2. The COVID 19 pandemic and the Trump Presidency.
The last 2 years of the Trump Presidency had been rocked by 3 events.
The impeachment proceedings initiated by the Democrats in 2019, for Trump abusing his office to try and influence the Ukrainian president to dig up dirt on Hunter Biden, Joe Biden’s son, in an effort to smear Joe Biden, who was widely perceived to be Trump’s challenger even in 2019. Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives, but acquitted by a Republican dominated senate and escaped having to resign. It exposed Trump to months of bad publicity and he was seen as a liar by the majority of the public. It also made traditional Democratic voters angry and many independent voters unhappy, and some Republican voters uncomfortable that a Republican President was actually impeached but escaped conviction.
The year 2020 that began with the Trump impeachment vote was soon rocked by the worldwide COVID 19 Pandemic. A raging virus from Wuhan, China swept across the globe from February, infecting millions in every country. A virus that had no cure or vaccine yet, brought the world to its knees, infecting and killing tens of thousands of people in many countries, crippling the economy, paralysed governments, kept most of the world in a virtual state of imprisonment at home, scared and anxious about contracting the virus, and clueless and helpless. America was particularly affected on a mammoth scale. Millions were infected and till date more than 200,000 people are dead. 20 million jobs were lost, 100,000 businesses closed permanently, and the entire country was badly shaken to its core by this unprecedented crisis that affected the very lives and livelihoods of every American. Although no American blamed the Trump administration for the actual virus, a huge majority of Americans were extremely angry with the manner in which Trump dealt with the crisis. From outright denying the existence of the virus in February, to underplaying it in March/April, to doing nothing at all to prevent its spread in the summer, to not enforcing national safety measures like wearing masks or social distancing, Trump lurched from crisis to crisis on a weekly basis. He seemed to have absolutely no idea of how to deal with the massive health crisis, had zero regard for scientific opinion, denied the spread of the virus as fake news, and more importantly stayed stubborn himself and refused to listen to the sensible advice given from all quarters.
Trump himself became the national example of what not to do, he rejected masks, social distancing, held crowded meetings and rallies, mocked at scientists, made fun of those taking precautions, promoted quack cures and measures and to cap it all, actually suggested ingestion and injection of disinfectants to kill the virus, on national media. It shocked the nation and made headlines across the world, triggering millions of memes and videos , with Trump becoming the object of ridicule, anger, and total disdain across the world, and particularly among large sections of the American public. From being called the COVID-19’s best ally in America in April, the common refrain in October has become “ Trump is not the best ally of the virus, Trump is the virus”. It all snowballed to Trump hosting super spreader events, and eventually contracting the virus himself, an event that highlighted his totally inept handling of the Pandemic. Democrats, Republicans and independent unaffiliated voters, all alike , condemned the handling of the crisis by Trump across the board, with most opinion polls showing more than 60% of America disapproved his handling of the COVID crisis, and less than 30% being satisfied, mostly Trump’s core base of White supremacist , conservative Christian and southern voters, most of whom vote Republican anyway. It is of immense significance that the big majority of those affected by the virus were the African American and Latino communities, disproportionately, with far more of these people losing their jobs and their lives.
3. Trump Presidency and racism
The 3rd major event that has become a major national issue and possibly one of the biggest election issues that may decide the presidential election is the Racist inequality issue assuming huge proportions over the past several months leading to the polls. That Trump was always perceived as a racist and silently supporting white supremacy was never in doubt, everyone knew it but till this year it wasn’t a major issue or hit headlines in a manner so as to occupy centre stage. All that changed by the last week of May, when George Floyd , an African American was detained by the police in Minneapolis, Minnesota ,on a minor suspicion of a counterfeit $20 bill. Floyd was handcuffed and held to the ground and 3 white police officers on him. One of them put his knee on Floyd’s neck, suffocating him and despite the pleas of Floyd to release him as he couldn’t breathe , he was held down by the knee on his neck for a full 8 minutes, and when he stopped breathing, help was called and George Floyd had died. Videos of this horrific incident made headlines across the world media, played again and again by all TV channels millions of times. George Floyd in his death had become a household name across the world, and the words “ I can’t breathe” echoed across the globe, sending waves of revulsion everywhere and attracting universal condemnation. America was perceived as racist and white supremacist across the world, and Trump was the focus of such negative opinion. Trump , who was just seen as a silent supporter of white supremacist racism, was now seen as the cause of it. And Trump added fuel to fire by not condemning this incident unequivocally. “ Black lives matter” movement gained momentum across America and tens of thousands of African Americans protested and marched across America, a massive rage had built up. It was not African Americans alone, ordinary white Americans were equally shocked and joined the movement and lent their solidarity, no normal white American wanted to be associated even remotely with such blatant racism, and everyone from rock stars, actors, football and hockey teams joined in and “took a knee” as an expression of protest against racism that targeted African Americans. It made waves and waves of headlines across America and polarised an already divided nation. Trump, instead of putting down the flames, stoked them as he is wont to, by focusing on incidents of some riots and looting that had happened in some cities. Blaming the left liberal criminal elements, as he called them, he made it a law and order issue instead of addressing the core issue of racism, and boxed himself into a corner from where there can be no reversal. Trump in fact played to the sentiments of his core support base of white supremacist racist voters, and never condemned racism, and stayed unapologetic and with no empathy at all. Trump had given all African Americans a solid and single minded purpose of coming out to the polls and voting him out, as well as alienating moderate white Americans, Democratic, Republicans and independents. Very soon many other such incidents, Breonna Taylor an African American shot dead in her home by white police officers and recently Walter Wallace another African American shot dead in Philadelphia by white police officers added to the growing anger against blatant and rampant racism.
In short, America was hit by the virus, crippled by the economy, divided by racism and The President was asleep at the wheel. Those who didn’t understand the phrase “ Nero was fiddling while Rome was burning” now did so, they were seeing it.
Will these 6 states change their voting from 2016?
Now, applying the above reasons and factors into the voting decisions of people who are voting now, let’s try to answer the following questions with a Yes, No or Maybe, and see where it takes us.
In just the 6 states discussed above , Pennsylvania, Michigan,Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, will many more African American voters come to the polls to vote ? YES
Will Trump get each and every vote he got in 2016 in these 6 states ? NO
Will those who voted for Trump in 2016 only because they did not want to vote for Hillary change their vote to Biden ? YES
Will those who voted for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein in these 6 states in 2016 only because they disliked Trump and Hillary equally now consider voting for Biden ? MAYBE
Will those moderate and independent white voters in these 6 states who are basically against racism but voted for Trump in 2016 change their vote to Biden now . YES
Will those people who did not vote Trump or did not vote at all in 2016 now find any new reason to vote for Trump that is due to his performance as President ? NO
Will moderate Republican and conservative voters who voted for Trump in 2016 only because he was the Republican nominee now hesitate to vote for him again ? MAYBE
Applying the above answers to the 6 states, and the voting numbers of 2016, there can be only one conclusion.
Trump is certainly not winning 4 out of 6 states, in fact it appears very highly likely that Trump will lose at least 4 and probably 5 states out of the above 6 states. It’s quite possible that he loses all the above 6 states and by considerable margins, considering he won all these states by quite narrow margins in 2016 when the conditions were far more favorable to him than now.
What have the polls been saying on the demographics ?
An important thing to look at in all the opinion polls , much more than actual numbers, would be the different demographic groups and what they have been saying, compared to how they voted in 2016. The following points have stood out consistently in almost all the polls.
More number of college educated white voters have decided to vote Biden than those who voted for Hillary in 2016
More women voters support Biden now than they did Hillary in 2016
Trump’s support among suburban women, a key factor behind his win in 2016, has considerably reduced now in 2020, more so among college educated white woman voters
Trump’s support among white college educated voters has reduced from the 2016 levels
Trump’s support among non college white voters has almost remained same, especially white rural voters.
The Latino vote, for the first time in US history has exceeded the African American vote as the biggest non white voting group.
Far more African Americans voters have registered to vote in 2020 than did in 2016.
Trump’s support among evangelical Christian voters is almost same it was in 2016
Trump’s support among independent and unaffiliated voters has reduced greatly from 2016.
Trump’s support among moderate Republican leaning voters who are traditional conservative voters has reduced now compared to 2016.
Far more numbers of African American and Latino voters are leaning Democratic than they did in 2016.
Trump’s support among senior citizens has reduced compared to 2016
Trump’s support among those who are dependent on affordable healthcare has drastically reduced and Trump having no alternative healthcare plan is a major factor among big sections of voters
What do the above numbers and possible voting inclinations of various demographics mean
If all the above shift in the voting preferences of various demographics hold good, and applied across the 6 states discussed above, and the 2016 results as a reference base, it’s almost certain that Biden will win all the 3 states in the rust belt, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, giving him 46 electoral votes more than what Hillary got in 2016 ( 232 ), and win the Presidency with 278 electoral college votes. He doesn’t need to win anything more. This is the least expected tally for Biden, a very minimum expectation.
In addition, if Biden wins either Florida (29) or North Carolina (15) , something that is more than probable given the consistent opinion polls over months, Biden would be heading for a very comfortable win with 293 electoral votes ( winning North Carolina alone ) or 307 electoral votes ( winning Florida alone ), a more comfortable win. Winning both Florida and North Carolina would give Biden a 322-216 win , a better margin than what Trump had in 2016 over Hillary Clinton. Ohio is possibly the only state of the above 6, where Trump has a better and realistic chance of holding on, although it may only be by a small wafer thin margin. And if Biden has the momentum to win even Ohio, as many opinion polls show him with a small lead or dead even with Trump, Biden would be headed towards a very big 340-198 victory and this is quite possible, as none of the 6 states we considered are safe Republican states, all are states won by Democrats a few times in recent elections and also Biden is leading in most of them with either clear or decent leads
Can Biden challenge safe Republican states Arizona, Georgia and Texas ?
This is a very big question as all these 3 states, Arizona , Georgia and Texas have been Republican strongholds for quite a few election cycles.
Arizona has been won by the Democrats only once after 1960: by Bill Clinton in 1996, just once in the past 60 years, every other election has been won by Republican candidates.
Georgia has been won by the Democrats only once after 1980 : by Bill Clinton in 1996, just once in 40 years, all other elections went to the Republicans.
Texas hasn’t been won by a Democrat since Jimmy Carter won it last in 1976, Republicans have won every election after 1976 and have sent 2 Presidents to White House, Bush Sr and Bush jr.
So why are we even talking about these 3 states ? It’s because that all these 3 states have shown very significant demographic shifts over the past 4-6 years, and particularly so over the past 2-3 years. These states have become more diverse in ethnicity , color and also age. All these 3 states have shown an increased number of voters of color, African American, Latino, Asian Indian and have also a younger voting population than before. A combination that’s very friendly to the Democrats. Further the recent election numbers for Senate, US house, Governor elections etc show a big shift from the Republican Party to Democrats.
Arizona (11 electoral votes) was won by Mitt Romney in 2012, by a 10% margin and 220,000 votes over Obama. In 2016, Trump won Arizona by a margin of 90,000 and just 3.5% and a reduction in margin by 130,000 votes. In 2018 senate election in Arizona caused by the death of Senator John McCain, Krysten Sinema the Democratic candidate snatched the seat by defeating Republican candidate Martha McSally by a margin of 56,000 votes and 2.5%. Arizona has been becoming more Democratic and all the opinion polls in the past few months have been showing a dead heat or a slight lead for Biden. So Arizona is very much in play for Biden and just a very small shift away from Trump, less than 3% towards Biden, can win Arizona for Biden and it’s 11 electoral votes.
Georgia (15 electoral votes) was won by Mitt Romney, Republican in 2012, he beat Obama by 305,000 votes and a 7.8% margin. In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 211,000 votes and a 4.85% margin, it had come down significantly. In the 2018 Georgia Governor elections, Republican candidate Brian Kemp defeated Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams by just 55,000 votes and a margin of just 1.4%. Georgia has the largest proportion of African American voters in any state and there had been several instances of voter suppression over many years. Now the Democrats had been registering large numbers of African American voters and there is increasing enthusiasm and optimism among Georgia Democrats. The opinion polls over several months too have shown Trump and Biden in a very close fight and some polls show Biden or Trump barely leading by 1%. So Biden will be seriously looking for a win in Georgia and does have a very good chance to win its 15 electoral votes.
Texas (38 electoral votes) was won by Mitt Romney (R) who defeated Obama by a margin of 1.25 million votes and a 16% margin in 2012. In 2016, Trump won Texas by defeating Hillary Clinton by 800,000 votes and a 9% margin, a much reduced margin from 2012. Also, in the 2018 Senate race in Texas, Senator Ted Cruz of the Republican Party beat a tough challenge from Beto O’Rourke, Democratic candidate, winning by just 215,000 votes, 1/5th of the margin Romney had in 2012, and 1/4th of the margin Trump had in 2016.
What had been changing in Texas past 4 years is largely due to a very big change in the demographics of Texas. The state has seen a large influx of Asian Americans and non whites, qualified professionals from other states who had settled down in Texas, and this is a largely democratic constituency. There has been a huge increase in the voting age Latinos as well, and also many Latinos who have registered to vote for the first time. For the first time in US history the Latino voters have become the biggest minority voting community nationwide at 12% overtaking African Americans at 11%.
Trump may still win Texas, but its not going to be easy, at best it can be a very narrow margin. And there is a very good possibility that Biden can make history and flip Texas to Democrats. If the voter turnout is very high as early voting numbers appear to suggest, this unthinkable upset may well happen, and if it does, it’s game over for Trump, Texas with its 38 electoral votes, will settle the presidency for Biden even if he doesn’t win a single other state that Trump wrested from the Democrats in 2016, although those would be bonuses. ( my personal guess: Texas will throw up a big upset)
What will the result be ?
Let’s get to the all important question. Who will win the election? 270 electoral votes is the winning bar. Based on all the above numbers and political factors and electoral issues, my expectation is there is a 90-95% probability that Joe Biden will win the election to become the 46th President of the United States. There is a very small chance that somehow Trump will squeak through to a barely thin electoral college victory, but it’s extremely difficult and very less number of ways this can happen, given that Trump has to retain almost every single state he won in 2016, and he has been trailing in most battleground states for several months. And also, Trump’s approval ratings have been less than 45% and in the low 40% levels for almost a year and with more than 50% disapproval rating for the same time, and no incumbent President with such low ratings consistently has ever been re-elected. And there is a 90-95% chance of Biden winning by at least the 278-260 margin.
Can Biden get to the levels nearer 300-238 margins ? Certainly it’s highly probable that Biden will win at least 293 electoral votes just by adding North Carolina , and if he wins Florida, he will win 322-216, and there is certainly a 80% probability he will. Florida is a very close race and Trump is very competitive in Florida and can win narrowly too, but Biden leads narrowly in most polls. And if Biden can flip and win the last of the 6th battleground state we looked at, Ohio, Biden wins by a margin of 340-198. As Ohio is a little more difficult for Biden to flip compared to other battleground states, I shall give this scenario a 65-70% probability.
Now to address the main question of this article , Can Trump lose in a landslide ?
I would call anything close to 400-138 win as a landslide. For this to happen , Biden has to flip all the 3 Republican leaning states of Arizona, Georgia and Texas. It is possible for Biden to flip maybe one or two of this 3, and get closer to 380 votes. Flipping Texas too will take a major upset, and that would mean this is a wave election. Any such indication ? Hard to say but the early voting % breaking records and posting unprecedented levels maybe an indicator. Also I think that this election will see an overall record turnout of more than 150 millions ( 137 millions voted in 2016).
There is a chance, a possibility , maybe around 40% probability that Biden will win with a big margin and Trump can lose the election in a landslide.
