India has had yet another attack, in Uri, Jammu and Kashmir and at the time of writing this , 18 lives of our Jawans have been lost . This is being called a "terrorist attack" by the media here in India as well as internationally. But let's come to that in a bit, while I answer the question that any reader may be asking, what exactly does the title mean ? Surely it's not rocket science for most people to figure out, almost everyone would be easily able to say that this article is going to deal with the long-standing India Pakistan hostilities, the dozens of " terrorist attacks" on India from across the border and Pakistan, and the role of USA in this and what American governments have been doing in this conflict. Right enough ... but 538 ? Well that's the total number of Electoral college votes in the US Presidential elections. What on earth is the connection, some may ask. Well, let's find out.
But before we embark on deciphering the 538 puzzle, let's dwell a little bit on the history of America's role in the India-Pakistan conflict, the Kashmir issue and the " terrorist attacks" that have been carried out on Indian soil by Pakistani nationals from across the border over the past couple of decades. Pakistan, after every such attack, routinely denies any involvement in them and does so in such a manner that it doesn't even seem to mean the denial. The denials are boringly similar in tone and detail, meant to convey to their local audience ... Yes ..it's us, we have attacked yet again ...so that a pathetic, impoverished and a frustrated non nation can draw some mild solace from it, having suffered humiliating defeats in 4 wars with India, and the resultant splitting of their country as well. I said boringly similar denials, but I am honor bound to point out there have been occasional flashes of refreshing humor in Pakistan's denials, as in the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai, when they claimed that Ajmal Kasab was actually some Ramlal, a local practitioner involved in some wallet related business in Mumbai's busy sidewalks.
India, on its part had adopted an equally predictable approach of blow hot blow cold towards Pakistan over the past 2 decades. From the Vajpayee administration in 1998, through the Manmohan Singh government from 2004 to 2014, till the Modi government now in 2016, if two words can describe the Indian government's policy in tackling Pakistan, they are "confused and ineffectual".
Let's take a close look at the timeline of events from May 1998, when the Vajpayee government conducted Nuclear tests in Pokhran. At that point in time India had total military superiority over Pakistan on land, sea and air. In reality there was no immediate need for any such Nuclear test, and also there hadn't been any significant terror attacks on India in recent years, nor was there any great incursions by Pakistan across the LoC. But what followed the Nuclear tests at Pokhran was that Pakistan panicked, and two weeks later conducted it's own Nuclear tests in Chagai hills. Both countries were slapped with economic sanctions by the "International community", a euphemism for the USA, and of course a few other countries.
All of a sudden, in a matter of two weeks, the world was talking about "Nuclear flashpoint Kashmir", and everyone and his uncle in the Western world was talking of a possible Nuclear holocaust and a Third world war waiting to happen. A situation that is still claimed to exist, and the Nuclear bogey trotted out everytime there is escalated tension between India and Pakistan. Whether or not it's true, and whether it's just an unfounded fear is debatable, but it has certainly achieved two purposes: one is that there is a greater Western involvement in all matters concerning India and Pakistan, and secondly , it has crippled India in its ability to use conventional warfare even in circumstances that fully warrant it.
This brings us to the larger question of why Vajpayee decided to go Nuclear. If it was perception of any threat from Pakistan, surely all evidence pointed to the contrary. If it was any threat from China, then surely even being Nuclear armed won't effectively shield India from China, as China is a vastly superior military power, and in any case India is hardly likely to use Nuclear weapons against China for some border skirmish in Arunachal Pradesh or a few square km of land occupied by China on and off. So the only answer is the Vajpayee government was trying to make it a political point for its own domestic constituency, which largely thrives on the " nationalist" card. It was also a compelling desire to be "part of history", and a sense of grandeur that propelled Vajpayee to this decision, something that has afflicted and subsequently consumed many a political leader or statesman across the world throughout history.
Having flexed the Nuclear arm in a show of machoism to his domestic audience, it was now time for Vajpayee to show his face of friendship and peace to the International community. The Pakistan cricket team was invited to play a test series in India, despite protests by Shiv Sena. Pakistan's team came here and was welcomed in a grand style. Cricket , that ever reliable diplomatic tool was deployed and the two cricket crazy nations were brought together in a close fought series. Pakistan defeated India in a thriller at Chennai , and the Chepauk crowd gave a standing ovation to Wasim Akram and his men. All was well, and the BJP govt was touting it's diplomatic success, and a pleased Vajpayee moved to the next level of diplomacy .
He did that by embarking on the famous Lahore bus journey in February 1999, hosted by PM Nawaz Shariff, exchange of sweets, poetry, photo ops, speeches and the entire works. It was all carefully orchestrated to portray the image of a world statesman, one who is the head of a nuclear armed country reaching out to his counterpart of another nuclear armed country, a long time adversary, all in the interest of world peace, and the "International community" loved it, not to forget the TV cameras, it was a great story and a good movie. And it lasted exactly 3 months.
India was in for a rude shock in May 1999. Pakistan Rangers and other military battalions across the border, pushed in Pakistani "irregulars" into Kargil and Dras and various other heights, and occupied positions. The operation was planned and guided by Gen Perez Musharraf, and after some initial denials, Pakistan did not even try to pretend they had nothing to do with it. It was a full fledged military incursion into Indian soil by the neighboring enemy country, an act of war. India was caught on the wrong foot, completely unsuspecting, and faced the ignominious situation of having lost territory to the enemy. And the BJP government and PM Vajpayee were made to look utter fools. India and Pakistan were " friendly " just a few days back, but all of a sudden , as India took on Pakistan in Manchester in the 1999 World cup faceoff, the British govt had to rush riot control police to the Manchester cricket ground to keep a baying crowd of Indians and Pakistanis apart. India was at war.
There were some anxious speculations in various circles in India, media and also among Indians across the world , if PM Vajpayee in order to maintain his "peace image", might not respond militarily or may be persuaded to adopt a "mature approach" by the "International community", and indeed such efforts were made. But India was different then, an angry nation was demanding action, the armed forces were straining at the leash, and a stung government had to act. And act it did, this time PM Vajpayee was making decisions on the strong recommendations of his trusted deputy and longtime associate Lal Krishna Advani. Advani wasted no time in emphasizing to Vajpayee that the only thing that would salvage the national pride and the Government's self respect was an all-out counter attack on Pakistan and delivery of a crushing defeat to Pakistan's army. The Nuclear bogey was considered for hardly a minute, and cast into the wastepaper basket. Advani did not believe Pakistan would ever dare to use it, and was of the firm conviction that India should openly affirm that India itself would not be averse to using the Nuclear response should Pakistan indulge in any dangerous and misguided adventurism. Pakistan's bluff was called and what ensued was a conventional war for the next 3 months.
The defence forces swung into action, and as the Airforce jets pounded Pakistani positions beyond the LoC, and the International border, the army slowly hit back and won all the heights back. The ferocity of the Indian counter attack was unprecedented, and hadn't been seen in earlier wars against Pakistan. They had no answer whatsoever, as they were crushed by the superior might and sophisticated attacks of the Indian Airforce and the Army. A seriously worried USA wanted the conflict to end, and it's intelligence had reports that Pakistan may be foolishly pushed into using the Nuclear option in sheer desperation.
President Clinton spoke to Vajpayee and warned him about it. India did not relent and insisted that nothing short of a surrender and complete withdrawal of Pakistani forces back beyond the LoC would stop the Indian counter offensive. Left with no choice, Bill Clinton summoned PM Nawaz Shariff to Washington and told him Pakistan would have to totally withdraw, or be prepared to face extreme consequences, possibly a Nuclear counter strike too, as India was in no mood to relent. An unhappy Shariff had no choice, and the Pakistan troops withdrew, resulting in yet another humiliating and ignominious defeat for Pakistan at the hands of India.
What happened in Pakistan after that would redefine the India Pakistan relationship, as well as the role of the USA in this Indo-Pak conflict, as well as the larger world geopolitical and military balance for the next few years. Gen Pervez Musharraf ousted the Nawaz Shariff govt in a Military coup, in October 1999, 3 months after Pakistan's defeat, and assumed dictatorial leadership of Pakistan and brought it under military rule. A Pakistan Supreme Court ruled that the Coup was legal and military rule was allowed for a period of 3 years till 2002, a period that would change many things for Pakistan, India and the USA .
But before we embark on deciphering the 538 puzzle, let's dwell a little bit on the history of America's role in the India-Pakistan conflict, the Kashmir issue and the " terrorist attacks" that have been carried out on Indian soil by Pakistani nationals from across the border over the past couple of decades. Pakistan, after every such attack, routinely denies any involvement in them and does so in such a manner that it doesn't even seem to mean the denial. The denials are boringly similar in tone and detail, meant to convey to their local audience ... Yes ..it's us, we have attacked yet again ...so that a pathetic, impoverished and a frustrated non nation can draw some mild solace from it, having suffered humiliating defeats in 4 wars with India, and the resultant splitting of their country as well. I said boringly similar denials, but I am honor bound to point out there have been occasional flashes of refreshing humor in Pakistan's denials, as in the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai, when they claimed that Ajmal Kasab was actually some Ramlal, a local practitioner involved in some wallet related business in Mumbai's busy sidewalks.
India, on its part had adopted an equally predictable approach of blow hot blow cold towards Pakistan over the past 2 decades. From the Vajpayee administration in 1998, through the Manmohan Singh government from 2004 to 2014, till the Modi government now in 2016, if two words can describe the Indian government's policy in tackling Pakistan, they are "confused and ineffectual".
Let's take a close look at the timeline of events from May 1998, when the Vajpayee government conducted Nuclear tests in Pokhran. At that point in time India had total military superiority over Pakistan on land, sea and air. In reality there was no immediate need for any such Nuclear test, and also there hadn't been any significant terror attacks on India in recent years, nor was there any great incursions by Pakistan across the LoC. But what followed the Nuclear tests at Pokhran was that Pakistan panicked, and two weeks later conducted it's own Nuclear tests in Chagai hills. Both countries were slapped with economic sanctions by the "International community", a euphemism for the USA, and of course a few other countries.
All of a sudden, in a matter of two weeks, the world was talking about "Nuclear flashpoint Kashmir", and everyone and his uncle in the Western world was talking of a possible Nuclear holocaust and a Third world war waiting to happen. A situation that is still claimed to exist, and the Nuclear bogey trotted out everytime there is escalated tension between India and Pakistan. Whether or not it's true, and whether it's just an unfounded fear is debatable, but it has certainly achieved two purposes: one is that there is a greater Western involvement in all matters concerning India and Pakistan, and secondly , it has crippled India in its ability to use conventional warfare even in circumstances that fully warrant it.
This brings us to the larger question of why Vajpayee decided to go Nuclear. If it was perception of any threat from Pakistan, surely all evidence pointed to the contrary. If it was any threat from China, then surely even being Nuclear armed won't effectively shield India from China, as China is a vastly superior military power, and in any case India is hardly likely to use Nuclear weapons against China for some border skirmish in Arunachal Pradesh or a few square km of land occupied by China on and off. So the only answer is the Vajpayee government was trying to make it a political point for its own domestic constituency, which largely thrives on the " nationalist" card. It was also a compelling desire to be "part of history", and a sense of grandeur that propelled Vajpayee to this decision, something that has afflicted and subsequently consumed many a political leader or statesman across the world throughout history.
Having flexed the Nuclear arm in a show of machoism to his domestic audience, it was now time for Vajpayee to show his face of friendship and peace to the International community. The Pakistan cricket team was invited to play a test series in India, despite protests by Shiv Sena. Pakistan's team came here and was welcomed in a grand style. Cricket , that ever reliable diplomatic tool was deployed and the two cricket crazy nations were brought together in a close fought series. Pakistan defeated India in a thriller at Chennai , and the Chepauk crowd gave a standing ovation to Wasim Akram and his men. All was well, and the BJP govt was touting it's diplomatic success, and a pleased Vajpayee moved to the next level of diplomacy .
He did that by embarking on the famous Lahore bus journey in February 1999, hosted by PM Nawaz Shariff, exchange of sweets, poetry, photo ops, speeches and the entire works. It was all carefully orchestrated to portray the image of a world statesman, one who is the head of a nuclear armed country reaching out to his counterpart of another nuclear armed country, a long time adversary, all in the interest of world peace, and the "International community" loved it, not to forget the TV cameras, it was a great story and a good movie. And it lasted exactly 3 months.
India was in for a rude shock in May 1999. Pakistan Rangers and other military battalions across the border, pushed in Pakistani "irregulars" into Kargil and Dras and various other heights, and occupied positions. The operation was planned and guided by Gen Perez Musharraf, and after some initial denials, Pakistan did not even try to pretend they had nothing to do with it. It was a full fledged military incursion into Indian soil by the neighboring enemy country, an act of war. India was caught on the wrong foot, completely unsuspecting, and faced the ignominious situation of having lost territory to the enemy. And the BJP government and PM Vajpayee were made to look utter fools. India and Pakistan were " friendly " just a few days back, but all of a sudden , as India took on Pakistan in Manchester in the 1999 World cup faceoff, the British govt had to rush riot control police to the Manchester cricket ground to keep a baying crowd of Indians and Pakistanis apart. India was at war.
There were some anxious speculations in various circles in India, media and also among Indians across the world , if PM Vajpayee in order to maintain his "peace image", might not respond militarily or may be persuaded to adopt a "mature approach" by the "International community", and indeed such efforts were made. But India was different then, an angry nation was demanding action, the armed forces were straining at the leash, and a stung government had to act. And act it did, this time PM Vajpayee was making decisions on the strong recommendations of his trusted deputy and longtime associate Lal Krishna Advani. Advani wasted no time in emphasizing to Vajpayee that the only thing that would salvage the national pride and the Government's self respect was an all-out counter attack on Pakistan and delivery of a crushing defeat to Pakistan's army. The Nuclear bogey was considered for hardly a minute, and cast into the wastepaper basket. Advani did not believe Pakistan would ever dare to use it, and was of the firm conviction that India should openly affirm that India itself would not be averse to using the Nuclear response should Pakistan indulge in any dangerous and misguided adventurism. Pakistan's bluff was called and what ensued was a conventional war for the next 3 months.
The defence forces swung into action, and as the Airforce jets pounded Pakistani positions beyond the LoC, and the International border, the army slowly hit back and won all the heights back. The ferocity of the Indian counter attack was unprecedented, and hadn't been seen in earlier wars against Pakistan. They had no answer whatsoever, as they were crushed by the superior might and sophisticated attacks of the Indian Airforce and the Army. A seriously worried USA wanted the conflict to end, and it's intelligence had reports that Pakistan may be foolishly pushed into using the Nuclear option in sheer desperation.
President Clinton spoke to Vajpayee and warned him about it. India did not relent and insisted that nothing short of a surrender and complete withdrawal of Pakistani forces back beyond the LoC would stop the Indian counter offensive. Left with no choice, Bill Clinton summoned PM Nawaz Shariff to Washington and told him Pakistan would have to totally withdraw, or be prepared to face extreme consequences, possibly a Nuclear counter strike too, as India was in no mood to relent. An unhappy Shariff had no choice, and the Pakistan troops withdrew, resulting in yet another humiliating and ignominious defeat for Pakistan at the hands of India.
What happened in Pakistan after that would redefine the India Pakistan relationship, as well as the role of the USA in this Indo-Pak conflict, as well as the larger world geopolitical and military balance for the next few years. Gen Pervez Musharraf ousted the Nawaz Shariff govt in a Military coup, in October 1999, 3 months after Pakistan's defeat, and assumed dictatorial leadership of Pakistan and brought it under military rule. A Pakistan Supreme Court ruled that the Coup was legal and military rule was allowed for a period of 3 years till 2002, a period that would change many things for Pakistan, India and the USA .
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